Author Topic: LONG LIVE THE UK  (Read 4567 times)

celebi

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« Last Edit: June 24, 2016 (05:07 AM) by celebi »
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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016 (01:33 PM) »
I'm interested to see what Ireland will do - they voted to stay, because leaving the EU separates the north and south.  We've already recently had Scotland almost leave, but this may break up the UK for realsies.

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Anthy

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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016 (06:59 AM) »
Iunno, Steven Hawking warned against it and he's a pretty smart guy.

My Brit friends are currently trying to find new jobs as a result of this, too. The Brexit side campaigned on xenophobia and lies about the NHS. When really it sounds like no one expected this to actually pass so nobody has a plan
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celebi

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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016 (08:03 AM) »
I'm interested to see what Ireland will do - they voted to stay, because leaving the EU separates the north and south.  We've already recently had Scotland almost leave, but this may break up the UK for realsies.

Which might not be a bad thing, if the Scots and Irish aren't getting the kind of representation in the UK government that they should.

Iunno, Steven Hawking warned against it and he's a pretty smart guy.

My Brit friends are currently trying to find new jobs as a result of this, too. The Brexit side campaigned on xenophobia and lies about the NHS. When really it sounds like no one expected this to actually pass so nobody has a plan

Yeah both sides got pretty ridiculous especially towards the end. Remain was all about TOTAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE and THE END OF EUROPEAN TRAVEL, neither of which will be even remotely true, and Leave was all about more Rotherham types coming in, but that requires a major shift in the UK government, not just an exit from the EU.

In the short to medium term the UK will take some economic hits, in the longer term they'll be much better off than the EU, especially if another recession comes around.

The media has overplayed the "nobody could have expected this!" deal with hysterical articles about how nobody Leave even knew what the EU was and/or they were voting just for fun; there's nothing unusual going on. At any rate it'll still be quite a while before the UK is actually out of the EU.

Ultimately what the UK really bought was the freedom for the people to decide their own future. I think that's worth losing some money and jobs (and indeed I heard from a Leave voter who knew she would be fired if it came to pass and she was OK with that on NPR); they're sort of in the same position as their former colonial holdings. Things always look bad for a little while when you get your independence, but in the long run it's all up to you.

Really if the EU wanted to be successful, they needed more of an American-style union (e.g., having a fiscal union and not just a monetary union), but that would have been even more unpopular since it would have meant more of a loss of sovereignty. As it is, it's basically the worst of all possible worlds.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016 (08:07 AM) by celebi »
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Anthy

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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2016 (01:32 PM) »
More like they pulled the plug on themselves
So long, and thanks for all the fish

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celebi

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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2016 (03:19 PM) »
More like they pulled the plug on themselves

The falling pound is great for UK exports and tourism - the same reason we need a weaker dollar, and why China does all they can to keep the reminibi weak - and the London FTSE 100 is already back up higher than pre-Brexit levels[1]. The doom and gloom is really overblown.  The EU is actually getting worse of a stock market reaction, because the feeling is the EU might fall apart.

Most likely, what the UK is looking at (assuming the EU does not fall apart) is a 1-2% reduction in GDP in the short-term (1-5 years) and after that they'll be fine, according to liberal Nobel Prize-winning international economist Paul Krugman. One of his more recent posts here:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/brexit-the-morning-after/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-39816

[1] http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016 (03:23 PM) by celebi »
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Re: LONG LIVE THE UK
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2016 (06:04 AM) »
*Looking outside after Brexit*



FYI, I voted leave and I'm proud of how much I screwed my government over as a result given they clearly had no contingency plan.


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